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![[info]](http://l-stat.livejournal.com/img/userinfo.gif) boutell | |
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Awright. Brutal honesty here: Much as I like the guy, Obama might be the next George McGovern. But Hillary Clinton is the next John Kerry. The next "enh" candidate most people can only get behind in the sense that, well, gosh, she's not Dubya. And John Kerry lost. Only four years ago. What's more, John McCain isn't Dubya either. And while you can argue that he's Dubya after all, you can say the same thing about Hillary Clinton when it comes to the question of the war. No, I'm sorry, I don't think we'll win this election with another John Kerry. So can we with it with another George McGovern? Here's the thing: nobody freaking knows. McGovern ran 36 years ago. The circumstances are different, the Republicans have made fools of themselves across a broad range of issues, people are willing to consider something new. And we already know the country just isn't buying the "here's a boring Democrat who isn't like the guy in the oval office, sort of, a little" argument. Besides, McGovern didn't lose the election of '72 solely by being an OMG liberal. He also lost it because the party splintered, with too many people supporting the "open bigotry is awesome" platform of George Wallace and joining groups like "Democrats for Nixon." Civil rights was the wedge issue. In a word, it came down to race. Would it come down to race today? I think more than enough time has passed that we owe it to ourselves to risk finding out. And what happens next depends in large part on what Hillary does. If Hillary drops out, will her supporters become Obama supporters? It's hard to tell; in exit polls many Hillary supporters say they would not vote for Obama. But I'm going to give Hillary Clinton some credit here: when and if she loses the nomination, she will campaign for Obama. In fact, I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that she will work her ass off to get Obama elected. To an admirable degree. Because Hillary Clinton is no George Wallace. And if I believe she and Bill Clinton are sincere about anything, I believe they are sincere about their anguish over the racial divide that this race has threatened to reopen (while, at the same time, casting a great deal of healthy light on racial issues in America). The best thing Hillary could do at this point for the Democrat's chances of victory, and the good of the country, is accept the Vice Presidential nomination. I can't blame her if she doesn't. It would be a bitter pill after eight years of quasi-copresidency with Bill. And she knows from Al Gore's experience that the VP is not the copresident. Failing that, though? There just aren't enough votes left in play for Hillary to have any plausible chance of reaching the convention floor with an edge in the delegate count or the popular vote. And the nomination of such a candidate in a formerly-smoke-filled back room would lack all legitimacy in the eyes of the voters and destroy the party's chances in November. It's time. Hillary needs to concede the nomination. And roll up her sleeves to elect Barack Obama. Tags: bill clinton, democrats, george mcgovern, hillary clinton, liberal, obama, politics, usa
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Word.
One thing that gets forgotten with the whole "omg Hillary supporters say they wouldn't vote for Obama" thing is that every time there's a seriously contested primary, we get this, and every time it doesn't really happen. Remember, something like half of McCain supporters in 2000 weren't going to vote for Dubya. Yeah, right. In the end, barring active party-destruction on Hillary's part (Which I don't expect, but is possible), I seriously doubt that anyone will be staying home who'd have supported her - other than a very small number of Secret Muslim paranoiacs who're pretty apt to support McCain anyway. It's one thing to throw a temper-tantrum at the exit polls and say you're going to take your ball and go home if your girl doesn't win - but come the fuck on, if you care about almost anything that Hillary stands for, a McCain White House would be a disaster, and you know it.
(The whole "racial divide" thing also feels really weird to me, simply because I frankly don't have any black friends, but everyone I know is an Obama supporter. It's that generational thing.)
When all's said and done, there'll have to be some healing - but we will come together to win in November, unless Hillary decides to destroy her career for all time in a fit of spite.
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From: glaucon |
Date: May 7th, 2008 03:20 pm (UTC) |
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No, I'm sorry, I don't think we'll win this election with another John Kerry.
So can we with it with another George McGovern?
dude, the democrats could run a salad crouton again mccain and win in november.
unfortunately, they don't have a salad crouton in the primaries, but I still think mccain is about the weakest candidate the republicans have fielded since gerald ford. there are so many ways to attack him: the Crazed Warmonger, the Hypocrite, the Big Meanie, the Adulterer, the Corrupt Crook. and those are just the ones that seem fairly likely. there's still the Manchurian Candidate and the Miscegenating Racist if one really needs to fight dirty.
and the serious crazies on the Right (which, even by my probably unduly forgiving standards, is a pretty large percentage of the total) are pretty lukewarm about him. at least one of the right-wing racist wackjob mailing lists I'm on has been ranting merrily about which third-party candidate they should get behind on accounta McCain not being enough of a nutbar for them.
but beyond any of that, my feeling is that his main undoing is going to be the fact that he's losing his marbles. I think at this point his brain has about the wattage of Ronald Reagan's circa 1986. the kid gloves the press has been using on him haven't brought this to light, but once there's an actual candidate on the Dem side, the swing voters will start actually noticing when he talks (at about the same time that he suddenly has to do so more often) and then the senile cat will be trying to claw its way out of the bag but failing 'cuz it's, you know, senile.
Hillary could win.
Obama could win.
Kerry could win.
hell, I think even Kucinich would have had a decent chance if he could have gotten through the primaries.
personally, I'm still pulling for a crouton to emerge from a brokered convention.
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From: cos |
Date: May 8th, 2008 05:03 pm (UTC) |
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Hilllary would be a very very poor choice of VP candidate for Obama. That's not to say he won't do it, but I don't think it especially likely, and I certainly don't want it. Her chances for that slot were much higher a couple of months ago, when she pretty clearly lost the nomination, but in continuing to run the way she has for the past two months, long after her defeat was obvious, she's made it much less likely. What would she bring to the ticket? A very strong personality unsuited to be the #2 on a well-managed campaign, a major conflict in messaging that would confuse voters and dilute the ticket's support, and no real positives he can't get from other, better choices (like Richardson or Sebelius).
What she can do for the good of the party is very simple: pledge not to fight at the convention. Pledge to accept the decision of the primaries when they're over. We know that decision will be Obama, and if she makes that pledge, there's no harm to come from her continuing to run if she wants to, only good.
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